A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
